Top Natural and Climate Risks in Poland

Understand the natural and climate risks affecting your property and prepare for the future with our risk assessments.

How Climate Change Is Affecting Poland

People in Poland may experience increased risks from heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought and other hazards due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.

+1.5°C

Projected increase in average summer temperatures by 2050

10-25

Extremely hot days annually by 2050 (compared to fewer than 5 days in 1991-2000)

20-30%

Projected increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events by 2050

35%

Properties at risk of extreme weather events by 2050

These projections are based on the widely-accepted RCP4.5 climate scenario, which represents a moderate emissions pathway – with greenhouse gas emissions expected to peak around 2040 and then gradually decline, leading to stabilized concentrations by the end of the century. Our analysis uses advanced climate models, high-resolution satellite data, and machine learning algorithms to provide accurate predictions.

Regional Climate Patterns: Northern vs. Southern Poland

Poland’s varied geography results in distinct regional climate risk profiles: northern regions, including areas near the Baltic Sea, are more exposed to coastal winds, sea-level rise, and storm surges, while southern and mountainous areas (such as the Carpathians and Sudetes) face heightened risks of heavy precipitation, river flooding, and landslides. Our property-specific analysis accounts for these crucial regional differences.

Natural and Climate Risk Ratings for Poland

CLIMATIG Score Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 0-100 scale, based on historical conditions and future projections through 2050. While a lower score indicates reduced risk, it does not mean zero exposure - climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone.

Heat Wave Risk

Heatwaves in Croatia are becoming increasingly frequent, prolonged, and intense due to climate change. Rising temperatures pose a growing threat to health, wellbeing, and overall quality of life, particularly among vulnerable populations.

Summer temperatures are expected to increase the most, with projections for the period 2041-2070 indicating a rise of approximately 2.5-3°C compared to the reference period (1971-2000). This significantly increases the risk of heat-related impact on people, infrastructure and property.

Heavy Precipitation Risk

When intensive rainfall occurs in a short period, water systems can be overwhelmed, leading to erosion and damaging floods. These events are particularly dangerous after prolonged drought periods when soil has reduced water absorption capacity.

Poland is experiencing an upward trend in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events. Although annual precipitation levels may not change dramatically, extreme rainfall events are becoming a more prominent risk for many Polish cities and towns.

Drought Risk

Longer periods without precipitation, higher temperatures, and increased evaporation are contributing to soil moisture deficits and water stress. These conditions can have significant impacts on agriculture, water availability, and ecosystem health.

Despite projections for heavier rainfall events, Poland is also facing a growing threat of drought—especially in the central and eastern regions. Climate models suggest that drought frequency and severity are likely to increase over the coming decades.

Additional Hazards in Poland
Severe wind

Poland regularly experiences high wind events, particularly in the western and northern regions. These winds can cause structural damage to buildings and infrastructure, especially in exposed or poorly protected areas.

River Flooding

Properties located near major rivers such as the Vistula or Oder face elevated flood risk due to more frequent and intense rainfall, which can exceed the capacity of flood protection systems and natural waterways.

Wildfire Risk

Rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells increase wildfire risk in Poland’s forested areas, particularly in central and eastern regions. These events can endanger properties and air quality.

Landslide risk

In southern Poland, especially in mountainous or hilly terrain like the Carpathians, heavy rainfall increases the likelihood of landslides, posing a threat to hillside developments and transport routes.

Climate Risks Across Poland

Poland’s varied geography means these risks differ significantly between northern and southern areas. Our analysis identifies locations with the highest risk levels.

Cities with High Natural and Climate Risk in Poland

Explore conditions at your location for 12 natural hazards

Get tailored risk levels for heatwave, heavy percipitation, drought, severe wind, coastal flood, river flood, wildfire, hail, late frost, earthquake, landslide and tropical cyclone for a specific location of your choice!

Protecting Your Property from Natural and Climate Risks

Climate adaptation measures can help protect your property and investment from increasing climate risks.

Heat Wave Protection

As temperatures rise, protecting your property from heat becomes increasingly important.

Heavy Precipitation Protection

Flooding from extreme rainfall events can cause significant property damage.

Drought Protection

Drought adaptation measures for buildings focus on reducing water consumption, installing rainwater harvesting and recycling grey water.

How Climate Risks Impact Your Property Value & Insurance

Climate risks are increasingly factored into property valuations and insurance premiums. Properties with high exposure to heat waves, flooding, or wind damage may face:

  • Higher insurance premiums or reduced coverage options
  • Decreased property value in high-risk areas
  • Additional mortgage requirements from lenders
  • Increased maintenance and adaptation costs

Having a detailed risk assessment helps you make informed decisions, negotiate better insurance terms, and implement targeted adaptation measures to protect your investment.

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