Understand the natural and climate risks affecting your property and prepare for the future with our risk assessments.
People in Italy may experience increased risks from heat waves, landslide and other hazards due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.
Projected increase in average summer temperatures by 2050
Extremely hot days annually by 2050 (compared to 5-10 days in 1991-2000)
Projected increase in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events
Properties at risk of extreme weather events by 2050
These projections are based on the widely-accepted RCP4.5 climate scenario, which represents a moderate emissions pathway – with greenhouse gas emissions expected to peak around 2040 and then gradually decline, leading to stabilized concentrations by the end of the century. Our analysis uses advanced climate models, high-resolution satellite data, and machine learning algorithms to provide accurate predictions.
Italy’s diverse geography gives rise to distinct regional climate risks. Northern regions such as Lombardy, Veneto, and Emilia-Romagna are increasingly affected by flooding, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves, particularly in urban and industrialized areas like Milan and Bologna. Meanwhile, southern regions, including Sicily, Calabria, and Apulia, are experiencing longer droughts, water scarcity, and higher risks of wildfires. These regional differences are essential when assessing climate-related threats to property. Our analysis takes these variations into account to provide accurate, location-specific risk insights.
CLIMATIG Score Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 0-100 scale, based on historical conditions and future projections through 2050. While a lower score indicates reduced risk, it does not mean zero exposure - climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone.
Heatwaves in Italy are becoming increasingly frequent, prolonged, and intense due to climate change. Rising temperatures pose a growing threat to health, wellbeing, and overall quality of life, particularly among vulnerable populations.
Summer temperatures are expected to rise significantly across Italy, with projections for the period 2041–2070 indicating an increase of approximately 2.5–3.5°C compared to the reference period (1961–1990). Given that many regions of Italy already experience very hot summers, especially in the south and urban areas, this rise in temperature greatly increases the risk of heat-related impacts on human health, infrastructure, and property.
Italy’s varied topography, particularly in the Alpine and Apennine regions, makes the country naturally prone to landslides — a risk that is intensifying with climate change. Rising temperatures accelerate snowmelt and the thawing of permafrost in northern mountainous areas, weakening slope stability.
At the same time, an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events leads to soil saturation and erosion, making landslides more likely. Regions such as South Tyrol, Aosta Valley, Liguria, and parts of central and southern Italy (e.g., Abruzzo, Calabria) are especially exposed, with many towns, transport routes, and infrastructure vulnerable to these growing geohazards. Continued urban expansion in risk-prone zones further heightens exposure.
Italy is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe due to its location at the convergence of the African and Eurasian tectonic plates. Earthquakes can occur throughout the country but are most frequent and intense in central and southern regions, including areas of Abruzzo, Umbria, Marche, Calabria, and Sicily.
These events pose significant risks to life, property, and infrastructure, especially in historic urban centers with older or poorly retrofitted buildings. Modern building codes and early warning systems have improved resilience, but seismic risk remains a serious concern for property owners and urban planners across much of Italy.
Coastal areas of Italy — particularly along the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas — are increasingly exposed to the combined effects of rising sea levels, storm surges, and subsidence. Cities like Venice are already experiencing chronic tidal flooding (acqua alta), while other low-lying coastal towns face growing risks of infrastructure damage and shoreline erosion during storm events.
Italy's major rivers, including the Po, Arno, and Tiber, pose increasing flood risks, especially during intense rainfall events. The Po Valley, home to dense populations and agricultural activity, is particularly vulnerable. Flood defenses can be overwhelmed when extreme precipitation coincides with saturated soil conditions or rapid snowmelt in the Alps and Apennines.
Central and southern Italy, including regions like Calabria, Sicily, and Sardinia, are highly susceptible to wildfires during the hot, dry summer months. Extended droughts, heatwaves, and human activity contribute to frequent and sometimes large-scale wildfires, endangering ecosystems, rural settlements, and critical infrastructure.
Drought conditions are becoming more common in Italy, particularly in central and southern regions. Reduced precipitation and prolonged dry spells threaten water availability for agriculture, hydropower, and household use. The Po River basin has experienced recurring drought events, affecting crop yields and prompting water use restrictions.
Italy’s varied geography means these risks differ significantly between coastal and inland areas. Our analysis identifies locations with the highest risk levels.
Climate adaptation measures can help protect your property and investment from increasing climate risks.
As temperatures rise, protecting your property from heat becomes increasingly important.
Landslides pose a severe threat to buildings, potentially causing them to become structurally compromised, destabilized, or vulnerable to collapse.
Comprehensive earthquake hazard and risk assessments are important to establish adequate building codes for earthquake-resistant construction.
Climate risks are increasingly factored into property valuations and insurance premiums. Properties with high exposure to heat waves, flooding, or wind damage may face:
Having a detailed risk assessment helps you make informed decisions, negotiate better insurance terms, and implement targeted adaptation measures to protect your investment.
