Understand the natural and climate risks affecting your property and prepare for the future with our risk assessments.
People in Germany may experience increased risks from heat waves, heavy precipitation, strong winds and other hazards due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.
Projected increase in average summer temperatures by 2050
Extremely hot days annually by 2050 (compared to fewer than 5 days in 1991-2000)
Projected increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events by 2050
Properties at risk of extreme weather events by 2050
These projections are based on the widely-accepted RCP4.5 climate scenario, which represents a moderate emissions pathway – with greenhouse gas emissions expected to peak around 2040 and then gradually decline, leading to stabilized concentrations by the end of the century. Our analysis uses advanced climate models, high-resolution satellite data, and machine learning algorithms to provide accurate predictions.
Germany’s varied geography results in regionally distinct climate risks. Northern regions (such as Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, and Brandenburg) are more exposed to flooding from heavy rainfall, and waterlogging due to flat terrain and proximity to major rivers and coasts. In contrast, southern regions (including Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg) face increasing heat stress, drought, and higher frequency of extreme temperature events, especially in urban areas and agricultural zones. Our property-specific analysis accounts for these crucial regional differences.
CLIMATIG Score Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 0-100 scale, based on historical conditions and future projections through 2050. While a lower score indicates reduced risk, it does not mean zero exposure - climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone.
Heatwaves in Croatia are becoming increasingly frequent, prolonged, and intense due to climate change. Rising temperatures pose a growing threat to health, wellbeing, and overall quality of life, particularly among vulnerable populations. Southern and eastern regions, including Berlin, Saxony, and Bavaria, are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat.
By the mid-century period (2041–2070), average summer temperatures in Germany are projected to rise by 2.5–3°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. The number of extremely hot days (over 30 °C) has already increased significantly and is expected to rise further, especially in urban areas, where urban heat islands amplify the effect. This significantly increases the risk of heat-related impact on people, infrastructure and property.
When intensive rainfall occurs in a short period, water systems can be overwhelmed, leading to erosion and damaging floods. These events are particularly dangerous after prolonged drought periods when soil has reduced water absorption capacity. Germany is already seeing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, especially during summer.
While total annual precipitation may remain relatively stable or slightly increase, rainfall is becoming more unevenly distributed—longer dry periods are followed by sudden downpours. This pattern is especially dangerous for cities and hilly regions, such as North Rhine-Westphalia and parts of the Black Forest.
Strong winds combined with drought conditions can cause dust storms in locations favorable for their development. They can cause irritation to respiratory tracts in vulnerable people and damage to property structures. Germany experiences damaging storms and high wind events, particularly during the autumn and winter months.
While mean annual wind speeds are not projected to increase significantly, wind gust intensity and storm frequency in some regions (e.g., northern and coastal areas) may rise slightly. These events, when combined with saturated soils from heavy rain, can increase the risk of treefall and property damage.
In northern Germany, especially in Low Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, and around Hamburg, properties near the North Sea and Baltic Sea face growing risks from sea level rise and storm surges. While flood defenses are strong, extreme weather events may increasingly strain these systems, threatening low-lying coastal settlements and infrastructure.
Properties near major rivers such as the Rhine, Elbe, Danube, and their tributaries are increasingly at risk due to more frequent and intense rainfall events. These can lead to flash floods and river overflows, especially in areas where natural floodplains have been reduced or urbanized.
While historically less common, wildfires are becoming a growing concern, particularly in eastern Germany (e.g., Brandenburg and Saxony-Anhalt), where prolonged summer droughts and high temperatures dry out forests and grasslands. These fires pose a threat to property, air quality, and public health.
Central and eastern Germany, including parts of Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, are increasingly affected by drought conditions, especially in summer. This trend threatens agriculture, forestry, and properties reliant on stable water availability, reducing crop yields and stressing ecosystems.
Germany’s varied geography means these risks differ significantly between north and south areas. Our analysis identifies locations with the highest risk levels.
Climate adaptation measures can help protect your property and investment from increasing climate risks.
As temperatures rise, protecting your property from heat becomes increasingly important.
Flooding from extreme rainfall events can cause significant property damage.
Strong winds can have devastating effects on poorly constructed buildings.
Climate risks are increasingly factored into property valuations and insurance premiums. Properties with high exposure to heat waves, flooding, or wind damage may face:
Having a detailed risk assessment helps you make informed decisions, negotiate better insurance terms, and implement targeted adaptation measures to protect your investment.
