Understand the natural and climate risks affecting your property and prepare for the future with our risk assessments.
People in France may experience increased risks from heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought and other hazards due to climate change over the next 30 years. These risks, through 2050 and beyond, may change depending on how much we reduce emissions in the near future.
Projected increase in average summer temperatures by 2050
Extremely hot days annually by 2050 (compared to fewer than 5 days in 1970-2000)
Projected increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events by 2050
Properties at risk of extreme weather events by 2050
These projections are based on the widely-accepted RCP4.5 climate scenario, which represents a moderate emissions pathway – with greenhouse gas emissions expected to peak around 2040 and then gradually decline, leading to stabilized concentrations by the end of the century. Our analysis uses advanced climate models, high-resolution satellite data, and machine learning algorithms to provide accurate predictions.
France’s diverse geography creates distinct regional climate risk profiles. Southern regions such as Provence, Occitanie, and Corsica are increasingly affected by heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, particularly during the summer months. In contrast, northern and western regions, including Normandy, Brittany, and Île-de-France, are more frequently impacted by heavy rainfall, storms, and river flooding. Our property-specific analysis takes these important regional differences into account to provide accurate climate risk assessments.
CLIMATIG Score Risk Ratings measure the risk posed by a hazard on a 0-100 scale, based on historical conditions and future projections through 2050. While a lower score indicates reduced risk, it does not mean zero exposure - climate change has complex, interacting local and large-scale effects that impact everyone.
Heatwaves in France are becoming increasingly frequent, prolonged, and intense due to climate change. Rising temperatures pose a growing threat to health, wellbeing, and overall quality of life, particularly among vulnerable populations.
Summer temperatures are expected to increase the most, with projections for the period 2041-2070 indicating a rise of approximately 2,5-3,5°C compared to the reference period (1961-1990), with southern France expected to experience the largest increases. Since France already experiences hot summers, this significantly increases the risk of heat-related impact on people, infrastructure and property.
When intensive rainfall occurs in a short period, water systems can be overwhelmed, leading to erosion and damaging floods. These events are particularly dangerous after prolonged drought periods when soil has reduced water absorption capacity.
Episodes of intense rainfall are increasing in frequency and severity in many parts of France, especially in the southeast (e.g., Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur) and in urban areas with poor drainage. While total annual precipitation may remain stable or decline slightly, the distribution is becoming more erratic, with longer dry spells interrupted by short, intense downpours — a pattern expected to worsen with ongoing climate change.
Prolonged periods of low precipitation and high temperatures can lead to drought conditions, reducing soil moisture and water availability. This affects agricultural productivity, increases wildfire susceptibility, and may cause structural damage to buildings through ground shrinkage, particularly in clay-rich soils.
France is increasingly vulnerable to drought, particularly in central, southeastern, and western regions. Climate models project a higher frequency and intensity of summer droughts by mid-century, especially under high-emission scenarios. This raises concerns for water supply, agriculture, and property value — particularly for rural and peri-urban areas reliant on groundwater or surface reservoirs.
Particularly concerning for properties along France’s Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts, rising sea levels combined with storm surges pose an increasing threat. Coastal flooding and erosion can cause significant damage to infrastructure, especially in low-lying areas such as parts of Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Occitanie, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur.
Many regions in France—especially those along the Seine, Loire, Rhône, and Garonne rivers—face elevated flood risk as intense rainfall events become more frequent. Urban development along floodplains and aging defense infrastructure can further exacerbate impacts, putting properties, transport routes, and livelihoods at risk.
Wildfires have become an increasingly serious concern in southern France, particularly in Mediterranean regions like Provence and Corsica. Hotter, drier summers combined with prolonged drought periods create ideal conditions for fires to ignite and spread, threatening residential zones, agricultural areas, and tourism infrastructure.
France is prone to severe windstorms, particularly in western and northern regions exposed to Atlantic weather systems. Storms such as tempêtes can produce destructive gusts that damage buildings, uproot trees, and disrupt power lines and transportation. In the south, regional winds like the Mistral and Tramontane also pose risks to structures and increase wildfire spread.
France’s varied geography means these risks differ significantly between coastal and inland areas. Our analysis identifies locations with the highest risk levels.
Climate adaptation measures can help protect your property and investment from increasing climate risks.
As temperatures rise, protecting your property from heat becomes increasingly important.
Flooding from extreme rainfall events can cause significant property damage.
Drought adaptation measures for buildings focus on reducing water consumption, installing rainwater harvesting and recycling grey water.
Climate risks are increasingly factored into property valuations and insurance premiums. Properties with high exposure to heat waves, flooding, or wind damage may face:
Having a detailed risk assessment helps you make informed decisions, negotiate better insurance terms, and implement targeted adaptation measures to protect your investment.
